CHENNAI: As campaign to bypolls for three constituencies ended on Thursday, the absence of charismatic AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa in the battle field is clearly felt as its arch rival DMK has forced a tough contest in two of the seats, Thanjavur and Aravakurichi, a rare scenario in bypolls in the state since 1999. In the byelections held during the last five years, the AIADMK has won by record margins, crushing the opponents by polling more than double their votes. The one-day campaign of Jayalalithaa in bypolls used to transform the constituency to a festive mood, generating the momentum among voters, especially women who throng her campaign venues. People in Srirangam, Pudukottai, Sankdarankoil and Tiruchy West had responded to Jayalalithaa's appeal for massive victory.

But this time despite all ministers and AIADMK functionaries camping in the constituencies and leaving no stone unturned, it does not appear to be a cakewalk for the ruling party in two seats. Several poll surveys see a close finish in Thanjavur, while some of them forecast a DMK win, which could be record in a bypoll after September 1999, when the then opposition AIADMK won the bypoll in Natham in Dindigul district.

In Aravakurichi, where the DMK commenced its campaign briskly, the AIADMK candidate and former minister Senthil Balaji has picked up pace in the last phase. But, a huge margin of victory is unlikely for the ruling party as per election surveys. The only seat where the AIADMK is comfortably placed is Thirupparankundram, where the DMK has fielded a new comer to the party and he does not have the full backing of the district leaders in Madurai. Besides, both the BJP and DMDK could take away some opposition votes in the constituency.

The most challenging seat for the AIADMK is Thanjavur, a bastion of the DMK, where Stalin's campaign drew huge crowds and good response. Besides, the absence of PWF in the fray is certain to avoid a split in opposition votes in all the three seats. The major advantage for the ruling camp is the voters' reluctance to elect an Opposition nominee to their seat for fear of obstruction in development projects and welfare schemes in the area. The DMK is trying to cross the hurdle by promising a regime change after bypolls. Besides Stalin, DMK principal secretary K. Duraimurugan and former TNCC president E.V.K.S. Elangovan had predicted a change of government after the bypolls. Even if the DMK is unable to surmount the 'vote for ruling party syndrome', the margin of victory is unlikely to be huge as the contest is stiff.